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Stochastic model for estimation of Fecundability in between two successive Live births (Closed Birth Interval)

Author Affiliations

  • 1Department of AEM, University of Swaziland, Luyengo M205, SWAZILAND

Res. J. Recent Sci., Volume 3, Issue (ISC-2013), Pages 9-11, (2014)

Abstract

Fertility as the positive force is responsible for the growth of human population. The researchers have given priority to understanding of the determinants of fertility through statistical methodologies. The stochastic models play an important role in estimation and interpretation of the fertility parameters. In this paper, stochastic model on successive live births has been derived for the estimation of fecundability based on assumptions of human reproductive process, indirectly incorporating socio, bio-demographic factors, taboos and use of contraceptive practices. In this model to describe the variation in the length of ith order successive live births for female giving their (i+1)th birth in T years of married life after ith birth with the realistic assumption that all the females not exposed to the risk of conception immediately after post-partum amenorrhea (PPA) termination due to some factors or contraceptive practices. In this derived model, fecundability (λ) has been considered to be constant over the study period. The duration of time from the point of termination of PPA to the state of exposure has been taken as random variable which follows exponential distribution. The maximum likelihood estimation technique has been used for the estimation of parameter (λ) through derived model.

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