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Forecasting of instant coffee exports of India using transitional probability matrix

Author Affiliations

  • 1Department of Agricultural Statistics, Applied Mathematics and Computer Science, Uni. of Agricultural Sciences, Bengaluru, Karnataka, India
  • 2Department of Agricultural Statistics, Applied Mathematics and Computer Science, Uni. of Agricultural Sciences, Bengaluru, Karnataka, India
  • 3Department of Agricultural Statistics, Applied Mathematics and Computer Science, Uni. of Agricultural Sciences, Bengaluru, Karnataka, India
  • 4Department of Agricultural Statistics, Bidhan Chandra KrishiViswavidyalaya, Mohanpur, Nadia, West Bengal, India

Res. J. Mathematical & Statistical Sci., Volume 7, Issue (2), Pages 13-20, May,12 (2019)

Abstract

Coffee exporting of India is of high importance in order to alleviate poverty. However, Indian coffee prices fluctuate very randomly as a large number of factors like production, quality, market demands etc. have immense influence over it. Consequently, involvement of considerable risk and uncertainty in statistical modelling as well as forecasting becomes unavoidable. Hence, in the current investigation, an attempt has been made to forecast the instant coffee exports of India using transitional probability matrix. The share of instant coffee export is forecasted to be highest to Russian Federation for all 3 years but compared to last year, export share has been decreased. The export shares to Turkey, Finland and Indonesia are expected to rise but India\'s share to Malaysia, Ukraine, U.S.A and other countries is expected to fall. Where in case of Poland one and two-step forecasting showing decrease in export share but third step forecasting had increased significantly. Though the quantity of coffee exported to different countries has increased over the years, India has to capture new markets to sustain as also to increase the total coffee export.

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