9th International Science Congress (ISC-2019).  International E-publication: Publish Projects, Dissertation, Theses, Books, Souvenir, Conference Proceeding with ISBN.  International E-Bulletin: Information/News regarding: Academics and Research

Assessing Adequacy of Probability Distributional Model for Estimation of Design Storm

Author Affiliations

  • 1Sardar Vallabhai National Institute of Technology, Surat 395007, INDIA
  • 2Sardar Vallabhai National Institute of Technology, Surat 395007, INDIA
  • 3Sardar Vallabhai National Institute of Technology, Surat 395007, INDIA
  • 4Central Water and Power Research Station, Pune 411024, INDIA

Res. J. Engineering Sci., Volume 1, Issue (1), Pages 19-25, July,26 (2012)

Abstract

Estimation of rainfall for a desired return period is one of the pre-requisites for any design purposes at a particular site, which can be achieved by probabilistic approach. In the present study, six probability distributions such as extreme value type-1 (EV1), normal, lognormal (LN2), gamma, pearson type-3, log pearson type-3 (LP3) are used to fit to annual 1-day maximum rainfall (ADMR) for Atner, Multai and Dharni sites in upper Tapi basin. Goodness-of-Fit tests such as Anderson-Darling, Chi-square and Kolmogorov-Smirnov are used to judge the applicability of the distributions for modelling recorded ADMR data. Diagnostic test, involving D-index, is used for selection of suitable distribution for estimation of rainfall for different return periods. The study shows the EV1 distribution is better suited, amongst six distributions studied, for estimation of design storm for Atner while LN2 for Multai and LP3 for Dharni.

References

  1. National Institute of Hydrology (NIH),, Technical Note on Hydrological Process in an Ungauged Catchment,, 1-163 (2011)
  2. Singh R.D., Mishra S.K. and Chowdhary H.,, Regional flow duration models for 1200 ungauged Himalayan watersheds for planning micro-hydro projects,, ASCE J. Hydrologic Engineering, 6(4), 310-316 (2001)
  3. Vaidya V.B., Karande B.I., Pandey Vyas, Lunagaria M.M. and Shekh A.M.,, Rainfall probability analysis for crop planning in Gujarat state,, J. Agrometeorology, 10(1-2), 183-185 (2008)
  4. Aksoy H.,, Use of Gamma Distribution in Hydrological Analysis,, Turkey J. Engineering Environmental Sciences, 24(6), 419-428 (2000)
  5. May W.,, Variability and extremes of daily rainfall during the Indian summer monsoon in the period 1901-1989,, Global and Planetary Change, 44(1-2), 83-105 (2004)
  6. Sharda V.N. and Das P.K.,, Modelling weekly rainfall data for crop planning in a sub-humid climate of India,, J. Agricultural Water Management, 76(2), 120-138 (2005)
  7. Chen J. and Adams B.J.,, Integration of Artificial Neural Networks with Conceptual Models in Rainfall-Runoff Modelling,, J. Hydrology, 318(3), 232-249 (2006)
  8. Carta J.A. and Ramirez P.,, Analysis of two-component mixture Weibull statistics for estimation of wind speed distributions,, Renewable Energy, 32(3), 518-531 (2007)
  9. Rosatto H.G., Becerra A.T., Botta G. and Presutti M.E.,, Runoff estimation in small rural watersheds using DEMS in North West of Argentina,, J. Soil and Tillage Research, 112(1), 8-17 (2011)
  10. Sreekala P.P., Vijaya Bhaskara Rao S. and Rajeevan M.,, Northeast monsoon rainfall variability over south peninsular India and its teleconnections,, J. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 108(1-2), 73-83 (2012)
  11. Hiremath Deepa B. and Shiyani R.L.,, Adapting Gujarat to Climatic Vulnerabilities: The Road Ahead,, Research J. Recent Sciences, 1(5), 38-45 (2012)
  12. Orlov Alexei M. and Ul’chenko Vasily A.,, Multi-annual changes of bottom temperatures in the Pacific off the North Kuril Islands and South Kamchatka (Northwestern Pacific, Russia) and demography of selected groundfish species,, Research J. Recent Sciences, 1(2), 61-84 (2012)
  13. Xu Y.P., Yu C., Zhang X., Zhang Q. and Xu X.,, Design rainfall depth estimation through two regional frequency analysis methods in Hanjiang River Basin, China,, J. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 107(3-4), 563-578 (2012)
  14. Lee J.H. and Heo J.H.,, Evaluation of estimation methods for rainfall erosivity based on annual precipitation in Korea,, J. Hydrology, 409(1-2), 30-48 (2011)
  15. Saleh A.A.,, Developing an empirical formulae to estimate rainfall intensity in Riyadh region,, J. Engineering Sciences, 23(2), 81-88 (2011)
  16. Suhaila J. and Jemain A.A.,, Fitting Daily Rainfall Amount in Peninsular Malaysia using Several Types of Exponential Distributions,, J. Applied Sciences Research, 3(10), 1027-1036 (2007)
  17. D’Agostino B.R. and Stephans A.M.,, Goodness of Fit Statistic, Marcel Dekkar Inc., 270 Madison Avenue, New York 10016,, USA (1986)
  18. Zhang J.,, Powerful Goodness-of-Fit Tests Based on the Likelihood Ratio,, J. Royal Statistical Society, 64(2), 281-294 (2002)
  19. United States Water Resources Council (USWRC),, Guidelines for Determining Flood Flow Frequency,, Bulletin No. 17B, 15-19 (1991)
  20. Report on, ‘Comprehensive planning for the scheme flood protective measures in river Tapi in upper Tapi basin’,, Narmada Water Resources and Water Supply Department, Government of Gujarat, 1-45 (2000)