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Forecasting of Milk, Meat and Egg Production in Bangladesh

Author Affiliations

  • 1Department of Agricultural Statistics, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh, BANGLADSEH
  • 2Department of Agricultural Statistics, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh, BANGLADSEH

Res. J. Animal, Veterinary and Fishery Sci., Volume 1, Issue (9), Pages 7-13, October,24 (2013)

Abstract

Livestock plays an important role in the national economy of Bangladesh. Milk, meat and egg production forecast have recently received a great deal of attention for planning and policy purposes. With this in mind, the present study was undertaken to find out appropriate deterministic type growth model using latest model selection criteria that could best describe the growth pattern of milk, meat and egg production in Bangladesh during the time periods 1991-92 to 2011-12. The study revealed that the cubic model is the best fitted model for milk, meat and linear model is the best for egg production. The selected model was used for succeeding four years forecast with a 95% confidence interval of milk, meat and egg production. The analysis found that if the present growth rates continue then the production of milk, meat and egg would be 4.55, 3.77, and 7544.67 million tons, respectively, in the year 2015-16. The findings of this study will help the policy makers to take necessary actions for proper management of milk, meat and egg production according to their demand and supply.

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